Dollar Today: The Blue Broke its Record and Closed the Week at $ 178

The blue dollar continued to rise this Friday: it jumped $ 7 and closed at $ 178. The parallel ticket advanced and still has no ceiling. The cash-settled (CCL or "dollar wire"), used by companies and individuals to exchange out of the country freely, this morning came to exceed $ 170, but then fell back to $ 165.31. This week, this price climbed close to $ 10.

Dollar today the blue broke its record and closed the week at $ 178
The gap between the CCL and the wholesale official thus reached 119.8%

The gap between the CCL dollar and the official wholesale dollar thus reached 113.2%. In the case of the blue dollar, the difference is 130%. These are percentages that exceed those of the hyperinflation of 1989, according to the consulting firm MYA.

The MEP dollar, the other free exchange rate accessed through the sale of financial assets, was sold at $ 152.07, 1.9% less than yesterday. This dollar advanced close to $ 9 this week.

The free exchange rates started the wheel on the rise but fell back after the words that the Minister of Economy, Martin Guzman, gave some clarifications in his presentation at the IDEA Colloquium. There is going to be a change of direction, "he said about the CCL market and explained:" What happens there is that control after control, it has been shrinking (the market) and has become more volatile. Do we care that there is a market for the transaction of pesos against dollars? Yes, we care. What do we want? What is small or bigger? When it is small, what happens happens. We are going to facilitate these types of operations. This exchange rate is very high and affects the ability to generate income in dollars, "he admitted.

"The restrictions on the MEP and the CCL, such as parking or waiting time to be able to get those dollars, were counterproductive; logically, they disarm them, and that should decompress the gap in those markets", points out Gabriel Caamaño, of the consulting firm Ledesma. However, he warns, the ultimate reason for the swings in the free dollar is expectations and underlying issues.

The reasons for the rise in the blue, as for weeks, have to do with the uncertainty regarding the economic direction. "Guzmán talks about potential easing in CCL regulations, but we still have nothing. Yesterday's measure [the greater restrictions on importers] was not what the market expected and a macroeconomic plan that tries to align expectations consistent with those is still lacking. possibilities of financing Argentina ", explains Juan Ignacio Paolicchi, an analyst at Eco Go.

The official wholesale dollar closed at $ 77.53 and advanced five cents. The retailer, meanwhile, was sold for $ 82.50 in Banco Nacion, the same value as yesterday. The final value of the dollar "savings", with 30% of the PAIS tax and 35% withholding, was $ 136.13.

Yesterday, the blue dollar jumped $ 4 and sold at $ 171, its highest all-time value. This bill has gone up to $ 24 so far this month. The parallel market heats up with each restriction on the official. After the adjustment of the exchange restrictions, which is estimated to leave out 75% of those who accessed the official "savings" dollar quota, in the blue demand overheated and supply cooled, today limited by controls on the digital (who bought the US $ 200 a month and then transferred it to others, usually in exchange for a commission).

Dollar today the blue broke its record and closed the week at $ 178
Broadly speaking, the big problem with the gap is that it creates expectations of exchange rate correction and, at the same time, provides feedback on this process 

Today a reaction in free exchange rates was expected after the Central issued Communication "A" 7138 last night, through which it puts into effect from today a series of conditions to payments and raises the current requirements to give access to the exchange market to pay for imports of goods with pending customs entry registration. This measure, importers warn, may paralyze some of that income and cause greater shortages of inputs in the coming weeks.

Why the gap is risky

The gap has an impact on the expectations and behaviors of the economic actors. The main reason is that the more the difference grows between the official exchange rate (contained by official regulations) and those that are outside these restrictions, the greater the probability of devaluation in the official market, fired by the magnifying glass. on the net reserves of the Central Bank, which are decreasing.

Broadly speaking, the big problem with the gap is that it creates expectations of exchange rate correction and, at the same time, provides feedback on this process. This was explained to LA NACION by Gabriel Caamano, from the Ledesma consulting firm: "As the difference grows, all the hedging behaviors that agents do to prevent the consequences of a future depreciation are deepened, and that ends up making the economy works worse because the soybean producer does not sell, the industrialist loses inputs and the exporter loses reserves. "

In the case of imports, a large gap fed the possibility that importers would overstock (in other words, increase their demand for dollars) if they expected a devaluation in the coming months; This possibility will surely be more controlled by the new measures of the Central Bank.

"Restrictions on access to foreign exchange for importers may make some of the pressure that was gathering in the gap really begin to be seen in prices: until now, it was a matter of expectations, but now, depending on how strict the restrictions, we could see the real impact, "adds Caamano.

On the other hand, it encourages elusive behavior: under-invoicing in the case of exports and over-invoicing in the case of imports. They are "tricks" that were tried to stop with reference prices and other Customs measures, but that could not be fully controlled, says the economist.

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